US Elections: The impact for online poker

As the dust settles on the 2008 US elections that sent Barack Obama to the White House and increased the Democratic majorities in both houses of Congress, many online poker players are wondering what impact these political shifts will have on the state of online gambling in the US.

The immediate impact in the markets was a positive one, suggesting that investors believe the elections will increase the potential for legal, regulated online gaming in the US. Excerpt from an article in the Independent:

Elsewhere, gambling companies were strong after Merrill Lynch said an Obama victory may lead to more open markets in the US. “We think it could ultimately pave the way for online gaming regulation rather than prohibition,” the broker said, highlighting Democratic moves to repeal the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act, which was introduced in October 2006 to prohibit the transfer of funds from financial institutions to any internet gambling site.

Merrill added: “There have been separate acts to legalize internet gambling as well as those that particularly target poker and other games of skill. We think that with a Democrat president and Democrat-dominated Congress, such legislation would likely have a greater chance of being passed through.”

Poker News Daily also took a positive view of the election, focusing more on the specific Congressional races with direct links to online gaming legislation. Here’s their summary of the relevant races and outcomes, with individual grades for each taken from the PPA Congressional guide:

Bob Goodlatte (R-Va) – F-
Defeated Sam Rasoul 61% to 36%

Spencer Bachus (R-Ala) – F-
Ran Unopposed

Linda Sanchez (D-Cali) – A+
Defeated Diane Lenning 70% to 30%

John Conyers (D-Mich) – A+
Defeated two independent candidates 92% to 8%

Melvin Watt (D-NC) – A+
Defeated Ty Cobb 71% to 28%

Steve Cohen (D-Tenn) – A+
Defeated three independent candidates 88% to 12%

Bobby Scott (D-Va) – A+
Ran Unopposed

A lively discussion of the likely impact on 2+2 generated some humorous responses:

Obama will use tax money to bankroll himself to multitable RailHeaven and GusHeaven. FTP will add a new table called ObamaHeaven which is 2k/4k NL, as well as a table called McCainHeaven which is actually a $1+$0.43 Sit and Go tournament.

… and some more serious ones:

People don’t seem to understand that Democrats don’t need to do anything to make the online poker landscape much better. They just have to stop doing some of the things that the Bush Justice Department has been doing. Right now, there are people in high-ranking positions in the Justice Department who want to stop online gambling. Neteller gets indicted, payment processors get shut down, TV stations get fined for running certain advertisements, etc. I’m going to bet a lot of the high-ranking people that have been issuing these marching orders will be out of a job come January 20. Who ever replaces them will have very different priorities and a very different agenda.

We think that last point is right on the money. While Democratic control of Congress and the White House certainly makes it easier to pass pro-online gaming legislation, there’s no clear sign that the party as a whole is motivated to introduce and champion serious legislation. The more significant, immediate impact will likely be a rethinking of UIGEA enforcement and Wire Act interpretation at the DOJ level, depending on whom Obama appoints.

Source: PartTimePoker.com